Curse

Chthon · May 06, 2008, 04:56 PM // 16:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lawrence Chang

Man... to think of it. After using THAT MANY keys, you would think that you would get one single "super" rare item.

There was a celestial compass, plus a number of rare Canthan skins that are probably " super rare" with inscriptions/decent inherent mods.

thesupersaver · May 06, 2008, 08:01 PM // 20:01

Well I had a bit of an experiment: I sold and bought Z keys from people to make a profit, but asked anyone I sold a key to to let me come with them and see the drops, so I have records of over 75 Z key drops(no SS, sry)
Also sry about lacking full names or reqs sometimes, couldn't always see what others had gotten in time.
Gothic Axe Q11
Emblazoned Defender
Golden Maul
Legendary Sword (q11 and q10 versions)
Ancient Scythe
Embossed Aegis
Fire Prism
Spatha
Jeweled Chakram
Bramble Hornbow
Jeweled Staff
Igneous Maul
Spined Focus
Stonehead Hammer
Sharktooth Shield
Earth Staff

4 tomes
10 firewaters
14 creme brulees
3 different tonics

Unfortunately, I didn't manage to write down what some of the other drops were, but most were crap. Very first Z keys I used got me the Legendary Sword, but after that mainly tons of cremes and firewaters. In my opinion, chances are you are much better off just saving the money to buy a weapon from a person than trying your hand at a Z chest, as you can spend 100k on keys and get back only 20k in value.

Risus · May 06, 2008, 10:50 PM // 22:50

You people don't realize this is all a waste of time. You are messing up your probablity. The chance to get a crappy item on first drop is 2/3 about, then next would be 2/3 again, then 2/3 again, and if you actually take the number of rare item drops, it is about 1/250. Probablity is a LIE. Instead of getting 1 out of every 250, you get 1 out of 500 or 1 out of 1 if you are lucky. Its all the computer, and the computer is AGAINST YOU!

As for your statement ^^^^^^, I spent 10k in keys got back 50k. 2 elite rit tomes (holy crap 2 out of 3) and a OK r11 celestial sword.

But, 2 keys:
1 r11 15^enchanted 20/20 20% briarwood scythe
1 firewater.

Annihilation · May 06, 2008, 11:50 PM // 23:50

250 Keys:

70 Rare Items
22 Tomes
3 Elite Tomes
1 Yuletide Tonics
71 Crème Brûlées
5 Transmogrifier Tonics
8 Beetle Juice Tonics
65 Flasks of Firewater
5 Lockpicks

-----------------------
250 Keys:

76 Rare Items
26 Tomes
2 Elite Tomes
3 Yuletide Tonics
70 Crème Brûlées
4 Transmogrifier Tonics
5 Beetle Juice Tonics
56 Flasks of Firewater
8 Lockpicks

-----------------------
250 Keys:

64 Rare Items
32 Tomes
6 Elite Tomes
3 Yuletide Tonics
76 Crème Brûlées
0 Transmogrifier Tonics
4 Beetle Juice Tonics
61 Flasks of Firewater
4 Lockpicks

-----------------------
250 Keys:

70 Rare Items
26 Tomes
5 Elite Tomes
3 Yuletide Tonics
68 Crème Brûlées
5 Transmogrifier Tonics
4 Beetle Juice Tonics
59 Flasks of Firewater
10 Lockpicks

-----------------------
208 Keys:

68 Rare Items
21 Tomes
2 Elite Tomes
4 Yuletide Tonics
51 Crème Brûlées
1 Transmogrifier Tonics
4 Beetle Juice Tonics
50 Flasks of Firewater
7 Lockpicks

---Total---
3333 Keys: 100%

974 Rare Items (29.22%)
366 Tomes (10.98%)
73 Elite Tomes (2.19%)
59 Yuletide Tonics (1.77%)
873 Crème Brûlées (26.19%)
43 Transmogrifier Tonics (1.29%)
56 Beetle Juice Tonics (1.68%)
798 Flasks of Firewater (23.94%)
91 Lockpicks (2.73%)
¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨ ¨
45 Warrior Tomes
32 Ranger Tomes
27 Monk Tomes
31 Necromancer Tomes
34 Mesmer Tomes
22 Elementalist Tomes
48 Assassin Tomes
38 Ritualist Tomes
42 Paragon Tomes
47 Dervish Tomes

4 Elite Warrior Tomes
9 Elite Ranger Tomes
5 Elite Monk Tomes
11 Elite Necromancer Tomes
12 Elite Mesmer Tomes
6 Elite Elementalist Tomes
12 Elite Assassin Tomes
6 Elite Ritualist Tomes
4 Elite Paragon Tomes
4 Elite Dervish Tomes

RavagerOfDreams · May 07, 2008, 12:26 AM // 00:26

i feel bad for you

like 1k keys and nothing overly notable QQ

fenix · May 07, 2008, 12:34 AM // 00:34

Total:
3333 Keys: 100%

Watttt...

Alternatively...you could have sold all those for almost 10 million gold. Instead...you use them to um...why did you use them again?

KycooGhost · May 07, 2008, 12:42 AM // 00:42

The 3333 keys is great for the percents that were provided. It gives a better Idea as to what the drop rate is like. Might want to provide a link for gw.gamwikis.org and wiki.guildwars so that they can add this data to their figures of drop rates and such.

Yawgmoth · May 07, 2008, 12:53 AM // 00:53

Nice statistics, I think we can round them and make probabilities assumptions based on those and on previous massive openings. If the real values used by the random generator are round, I think they look like this:

Gold Item .... 30.0%
Reg Tome.... 10.0%
Elite Tome... 2.5%
Tonic.......... 5.0%
Creme......... 25.0%
Flask........... 25.0%
Lockpick...... 2.5%
TOTAL:....... 100.0%

jinzo7 · May 07, 2008, 01:18 AM // 01:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by fenix

Alternatively...you could have sold all those for almost 10 million gold. Instead...you use them to um...why did you use them again?

and on topic:

NoXiFy · May 07, 2008, 01:23 AM // 01:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by jinzo7

and on topic:

...kill yourself. 1 key and you get 100k+100e... wow -_-. Plus, don't play r-spike its a shite ha build and gets raped by any decent balanced or a even a shitway xD

KycooGhost · May 07, 2008, 02:46 AM // 02:46

going by whats in his invitory he had 5 keys and used 2 got crem and water and used 3rd to get the spear... yea that should make you sick...

masta_yoda · May 07, 2008, 06:52 AM // 06:52

actually he had 6 keys the 4th key was the voltaic ... fools lol ^

SirSausage · May 07, 2008, 11:48 AM // 11:48

I see that the Creme droprate is just ridiculous.
26% chance? /facepalm

ShadowsRequiem · May 08, 2008, 02:30 AM // 02:30

5 Keys
One lockpick before was cutoff.

Luca Firestorm · May 08, 2008, 02:53 AM // 02:53

Now i am not exactly sure how much everything is worth, but i can make up a few values to get the reward probability outcome.
Golds: 300 gold on average at 0.3
Tome: 100 gold on average at 0.1
ETome: 10000 gold on average 0.025
Tonic: 200 gold on average at 0.05
Creme: 300 gold on average at 0.25
Flask: 200 gold on average at 0.25
Lockpick: 1250 gold on average at 0.025.
Now the average gain/loss can be calculated via:
0.3*300+0.1*100+0.025*10000+0.05*200+300*0.25+0.25 *200+0.025*1250
= 516 approximately
Therefore for sellers and buyers to trade evenly they should be sold at that.
If my estimations were incorrect plz correct them and a more accurate final value can be determined.
If we take into account gold weapons that can actually be sold for a large amount we can approximate it this way (although rather roughly). We know that it takes at least 3333 keys to get anything remotely good. Lets say that u can sell that at 500000 gold. 500 000 / 3333 = 150. 150+516= 666.
THen that is the price zaishen keys should be sold at.

Kikuta · May 08, 2008, 03:52 AM // 03:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luca Firestorm

blah blah = 666.
THen that is the price zaishen keys should be sold at.

Ahuh.

*restores GW*

WTS Zaishen Keys 4k ea

X Tigercat X · May 08, 2008, 04:46 AM // 04:46

wow im loling at how much people spend on z keys. all those keys gone to waste. it makes me sad. I only use keys i earn or buy a couple when a friend needs cash. That way it doesnt become and addiction and i dont blow all my cash on it.

PS. I'd b willing to open the chest for u unlucky people for a small price

Pleikki · May 08, 2008, 04:57 AM // 04:57

You guys been lucky lately! gz everyone for good drops. i havent been able play cus videocard crashed

Just.nl · May 08, 2008, 07:22 AM // 07:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Annihilation

250 Keys:

70 Rare Items
22 Tomes
3 Elite Tomes
1 Yuletide Tonics
71 Crème Brûlées
5 Transmogrifier Tonics
8 Beetle Juice Tonics
65 Flasks of Firewater
5 Lockpicks

-----------------------
250 Keys:

76 Rare Items
26 Tomes
2 Elite Tomes
3 Yuletide Tonics
70 Crème Brûlées
4 Transmogrifier Tonics
5 Beetle Juice Tonics
56 Flasks of Firewater
8 Lockpicks

-----------------------
250 Keys:

64 Rare Items
32 Tomes
6 Elite Tomes
3 Yuletide Tonics
76 Crème Brûlées
0 Transmogrifier Tonics
4 Beetle Juice Tonics
61 Flasks of Firewater
4 Lockpicks

-----------------------
250 Keys:

70 Rare Items
26 Tomes
5 Elite Tomes
3 Yuletide Tonics
68 Crème Brûlées
5 Transmogrifier Tonics
4 Beetle Juice Tonics
59 Flasks of Firewater
10 Lockpicks

-----------------------
208 Keys:

68 Rare Items
21 Tomes
2 Elite Tomes
4 Yuletide Tonics
51 Crème Brûlées
1 Transmogrifier Tonics
4 Beetle Juice Tonics
50 Flasks of Firewater
7 Lockpicks

---Total---
3333 Keys: 100%

974 Rare Items (29.22%)
366 Tomes (10.98%)
73 Elite Tomes (2.19%)
59 Yuletide Tonics (1.77%)
873 Crème Brûlées (26.19%)
43 Transmogrifier Tonics (1.29%)
56 Beetle Juice Tonics (1.68%)
798 Flasks of Firewater (23.94%)
91 Lockpicks (2.73%)
¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨ ¨
45 Warrior Tomes
32 Ranger Tomes
27 Monk Tomes
31 Necromancer Tomes
34 Mesmer Tomes
22 Elementalist Tomes
48 Assassin Tomes
38 Ritualist Tomes
42 Paragon Tomes
47 Dervish Tomes

4 Elite Warrior Tomes
9 Elite Ranger Tomes
5 Elite Monk Tomes
11 Elite Necromancer Tomes
12 Elite Mesmer Tomes
6 Elite Elementalist Tomes
12 Elite Assassin Tomes
6 Elite Ritualist Tomes
4 Elite Paragon Tomes
4 Elite Dervish Tomes

Did you make profit?

Really amazing that you spended so much keys but thats really lots of cash how much are that keys worth 2,5k ea?

thats its

3333x2,5=8333,2K cash :S but if you got any mods good stuff sold things for much and got maybe lots of cash already

but you see 3333 keys and still no crystalline.. maybe someone use 1 key and then a crystalline sword :S

кιωι · May 08, 2008, 08:40 AM // 08:40

^ 3333x2,5=8,332,500g = 8.3mil, not 8billion